I can't be the only one concerned about COVID-19

Judging by the cruise line stocks today the virus is now officially over with and we should all start booking our cruises now. I cashed out NCLH and CCL once they hit 15% and 20% today respectively, and I'll re-acquire them later this week when they go back down after seeing the US daily death counts go above 3k.

This is the problem with the certain members of the leadership declaring victory before it's actually happened. I fear the light at the end of the tunnel just got much further away.

 

My parents just booked a Royal Caribbean cruise for December. $360 some for both of them for a 9 day cruise . I think that was even the total with taxes and stuff

 

The market did react to the comments from the scientists and medical professionals. Specifically yesterday's comments. I'm not sure I heard anyone declare victory however, and I've been watching this pretty closely.

I could have very well missed this, but when I do searches I can't seem to find where this happened?

Could someone post a link of this please?

 

I want to double like this post. I agree with you.

 

Very possible. It's certainly related. My reference/observation is that the index future's took off immediately after Fauci's light at the end of the tunnel remarks. Unrelated, did you take advantage of the obvious market inefficiency between FV and IO this morning. Easy money.

 

Just means buy some more.

 

So a Martingale strategy??

 

I've been short oil since pre election 2016, and went shorter right after the 2016 election as that market was almost predictable. Almost predictable. There was some risk in the current energy policy not being enacted, but that risk was legislative, not executive branch, so I was comfortable paying for this trade. Call it a LEAP I guess. Essentially in practice it was a LEAP, but I constructed the trade differently.

I have since gone long oil (only for the short term), but I buy either options on the future's contracts, or buy a futures contract outright. It depends on how much the time premium is. So my long oil is a short term long oil if that makes sense. I'm not as long term long oil as you, as I don't see a large enough long term return, only short term returns at this point, but I do watch with interest your trades and reasoning.

I get to trade oil differently than most becuase I own oil producing land and leases in Central and Southern Illinois. Not a lot, but enough that I can place HTA (hedge to arrive), and trade around that, and also hedge further with OVX.

I do own CVX, and I beleive it to be more integrated than XOM, but I have my concerns about both of these in the near term. It should also be said that analysts will argue ad nauseum about which of these is the more integrated company. Q2 & 3 earnings will tell the tale, especially the reporting by segments, and footnotes. The earnings are less important becuase both hedge, but the segment reporting, especially downstream segments should prove interesting. Not that downstream operations aren't also hedged, but YTY downstream operations should eventually be stronger.

I previously shared my thoughts on the Russia / OPEC "price war", and I think at this point I take the approach that demand is my larger concern from a macro level, and whatever the reason for the Russia / OPEC situation is probably not important as it regards my investments outside of the obvious geopolitical factors.

I consider the above investments or hedges. Where I gamble or speculate is natural gas.

 

I gamble and speculate on natural gas on a daily basis as well. For example, I speculate that I can eat any meal loaded with pinto or black beans with each meal without concern on natural gas production levels. I gamble on natural gas output when I decide whether to take a dose of beano before bed.

 

I'm gonna have to 100% disagree with your Potus comment. In our state of KY, our governor was out in front of the public early, pro-actively making decisions to control outbreak, and working closely with local governments to manage the crisis. I view a lot of what's going on as pushing for leadership and accountability from executive branch. Without getting political, my expectation from any US president regardless of party affiliation is that they show the following characteristics of leadership in a crisis.

Honesty and integrity
Confidence
Ability to Inspire Others
Good Communicator
Sound Decision Making Capabilities
Ability to listen and take advice
Forward Thinking
Personal Accountability
Transparency

I'm not seeing this right now. I don't think Potus sees himself as a servant of the people, as much as I think he views himself as CEO of TRUMP USA imho.

 

Consistency is also critical. Otherwise, people get confused = fear, anxiety, and inability to commit to a course of action as prescribed by the PTB (powers that be).

 

My daughter is heading to NYC right now. The money “thrown” at her for 8 weeks is what some make in a year.

 

Most moms don't talk about a lot of money being thrown at their daughters! Just sayin'

 

My daughter said if she didn’t have a nursing 5 month old, she’d definitely go. The money is insane.

 

Problem is we definitely had significant spreading of this well before March 5th.

South Korea's first official case was reported on 1/20/20. Our first offical case. 5 days EARLIER. So is it fair to exclude all the days on that chart that claims there is no significant testing data for the US? Cases were definitely building during that time.

Look at the first 30 days since the first case in each country. You'll find South Korea had a boatload more tests per capita which definitely helped mitigate the spread. We've mainly caught up in the testing rate because we're testing a bunch of likely positive cases still. South Korea's not. They mostly have it under control unlike our New York dumpster fire.

The governors on the other side of the aisle mostly wanted action from Trump weeks ago! But Trump won't do shit unless they kiss his ass. If I was Pritzker in Illinois, I'd pucker up soon. Not worth fighting the good fight anymore (and he's tried hard).

M's coworkers read on Facebook a call for $30k for working 21 straight 12-hour shifts in NY, plus travel (maybe food, i forget). Her coworkers were intrigued. She wasn't at age 35.5. And I agree. So hope your daughter is getting ~75k for two months! She deserves it! They ALL do!!!

But also when salaries like that are being offered, we're fucking ill-prepared!!!

And thoughts and prayers for your daughter to not catch and suffer from Covid-19 OR actually get it and recover with mild symptoms.