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2018 Preakness Stakes and Black Eyed Susan Stakes

Discussion in 'Sports Book' started by NickPappageorgio, May 15, 2018.

  1. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    It's always inevitable that the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown is a little bit less flashy than the 1st. Going into the KY Derby 20 horses have a shot at Racing's most stories prize, into the Preakness it's one. The Preakness & Black Eyed Susan Day cards are typically pretty solid betting cards and this year's seem to be the same.

    For this post I'll just enter the fields for the two "marquee" races but if you have other races you're eyeing (and I'm sure I will) please feel free to enter them here. Despite having no post draw we already have morning line odds for the Preakness, and none for the Black Eyed Susan despite having post positions.

    Let's start with the Fillies:

    2018 Black Eyed Susan

    1. Tell Your Mama J.Castellano
    2. Midnight Disquise I Ortiz
    3. Coach Rocks L Saez
    4. Red Ruby P Lopez
    5. Mihrab J Toledo
    6. C.S. Incharge L Saez (will have a decision to make)
    7. Good One Honey S. D. Hamilton
    8. Indy Union J Ortiz
    9. Sara Street D Davis
    10. Stakes on a Plane S Russell


    2018 Preakness Contenders (No post position, Post draw on Wednesday)

    Justify (2-5)
    Good Magic (7-2)
    Quip (16-1)
    Diamond King (16-1)
    Bravazo (20-1)
    Sporting Chance (22-1)
    Tenfold (25-1)
    Lone Sailor (25-1)

    Good luck
     
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  2. momnkid

    momnkid Platinum
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    What're you tryin' to say about Bawlmer?!?! LOL

    Looks like it might be a soggy one again. Bleh.
     
  3. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Palladium
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    Can't WAIT!
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    Love Baltimore.

    Pimlico? Not so much.

    Laurel is a helluva nice facility now since Stronach Group remodeled it.
     
  5. JSR1968

    JSR1968 Gold
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    I’m not sure how I will structure the pick 3 ticket yet but I think the favorite is VERY vulnerable in the Preakness.if I’m wrong then I’m wrong but I would be willing to spend $18 or so to try to beat him to cash a healthy ticket.

    I did the same thing in 2010 when Lookin at Lucky won as the 2/1 second choice. I spent $16 with him singled in the 3rd leg. The first two winners were 13/1 and 14/1. The pick 3 paid $800+

    This one could pay MUCH better
     
  6. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    I've been on Justify since before the Santa Anita and I'm sticking with him here. Might feel differently in the Belmont however
     
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  7. JSR1968

    JSR1968 Gold
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  8. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    Interesting post draw. Same 7 hole for Justified but he's on the outside this race with speed inside of him. Be interesting to see how Mike Smith handles the ride.
     
  9. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    Pimlico is a complete dump.

    If it wasn't for Preakness, that place would have closed years ago.
     
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  10. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    1 Quip 12-1 F. Giroux - Qualified for the KY Derby via his Tampa Bay Derby win, but his connections decided to wait for the Preakness which they feel is a better fit for him.

    2 Lone Sailor 15-1 I. Ortiz - Finished eighth in the KY Derby, wasn't really a factor but didn't run poorly. Would need to improve massively to compete here

    3 Sporting Chance 30-1 L. Contreras - Finished 4th in the Pat Day Mile. Speed horse from D. Wayne Lukas who might be looking to set a hot pace for Bravazo to try and sweep up.

    4 Diamond King 30-1 J. Castellano - Winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes, the Preakness prep race for local horses in Maryland

    5 Good Magic 3-1 J. Ortiz - Ran second in the KY Derby losing to Justify by 2 1/2 weeks. Unusual move for trainer Chad Brown to make the Derby/Preakness turnaround so he might bear taking a close look at.

    6 Tenfold 20-1 V. Espinoza - Didn't qualify for the Derby on points and ran poorly against Grade 1 competition. Will need to improve mightily to figure in the top placings.

    7 Justify 1-2 M. Smith - KY Derby winner. Same story in the Preakness as the Derby, you either believe in Justify, or you don't. I do. He will be my key horse.

    8 Bravazo 20-1 L. Saez - Ran a respectable 5th in the KY Derby. A pure closer which is why I think the entrance of Sporting Chance by trainer D. Wayne Lukas (who also trains Bravazo) is notable

    Good luck.
     
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  11. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    Yup. The Stronach group (which owns both Pimlico and Laurel) are lobbying hard to have the Maryland law which states the Preakness must be held at Pimlico repealed so they can move the race to Laurel and shutter the big, red, hulking dump.
     
  12. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    Finally got some odds for the Black-Eyed Susan

    1. Tell Your Mama (20/1)

    2. Midnight Disguise (4/1)

    3. Coach Rocks (7/2)

    4. Red Ruby (5/1)

    5. Mihrab (30/1)

    6. C.S. Incharge (15/1)

    7. Goodonehoney (5/1)

    8. Indy Union (10/1)

    9. Sara Street (4/1)

    10. Stakes On A Plane (20/1)

    Most of the analysis that I've seen has this coming down to either Sara Street, or Midnight Disguise with Coach Rocks possibly upsetting the apple cart.

    I'm leaning toward a $10 win bet on the 9 but using the 4, Red Ruby in a $5 Exacta Box with the same. I'm going to bet a $1 Tri Box with 2-4-7-9 to try and sweep up the minor placings. Even though she's lightly raced the 7 Goodonehoney has won both of her starts by a combined 11 3/4 lengths so I don't think you can leaver her totally out of your exotics. I'm leaving Coach Rocks out however, thinking that the morning line (slight) favorite here is only getting a bump because she raced in the KY Oaks. The problem is she finished seventh in that race and really didn't have any trip issues to complain about, she was just outran. She won the Gulfstream Oaks in a TOUGH race and I'm wondering just how much that took out of her. If she beats me, she beats me. I'm OK with that.
     
  13. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    Scratch the #2 - Midnight Disguise from today's Black-Eyed Susan.

    This changes my $1 Tri-Box bet to 4-7-8-9. Adding Indy Union. Still betting against Coach Rocks.
     
  14. NickPappageorgio

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    My Wagering today will start with Race 5 on the card. I like the 8-Vertical Oak quite a bit in this spot. The last time she was on this track was for the Grade III Ms. Preakness and she blew the field away. Expect a lot of money to be placed on the 4 - Ms. Locust Point. is a burner who has some experience winning over a sloppy track, and pedigree that seems to back that up.
     
  15. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    Here are my remaining choices for the day, all bets are $2 WPS ($6 total) unless otherwise noted. (this doesn't include the Black Eyed Susan which I outlined above)

    Race 7: 1 - Happy Like a Fool. Not a big believer in the favorite Good Move. Happy like a fool came in 4th in its last race which was the first off of a long layoff. I see this horse improving and getting up at the wire.

    Race 8: No bet. My favorite scratched and I'm un-enthused about the rest of the field.

    Race 9: 3 - Rated R Superstar. - Won its last race at a slightly shorter distance but appears to be a horse on the come. I also like the 1- Irish War Cry but he's let me down a LOT in the past. Still, I'll probably put $5 bucks on him to win as a long shot play because he was my horse his 3yo season.

    Race 10: 5 - Vici - Admittedly a bit of a reach here as this horse is stepping up in class but is a gutty performer who has only finished off the board twice in the last two years. And I LOVE the pickup of jockey Jose Ortiz here.

    Race 11: The Black-Eyed Susan (see above)

    Race 12: No Bet. Again, so many scratches (including my favorite) and I'm unenthused about what remains.

    Race 13: 1. Furiously Kissed - This is a hard race to handicap as the field consists of a LOT of horses who have a habit of finishing 2nd or 3rd against stakes level company. Despite the long price (14-1) I think Furiously Kissed has the best competition in her rearview mirror and I have a habit of jumping on Javier Castellano mounts at anything over 10-1.

    Races 14-18: No bets. There are eighteen(!!!) races on today's card. Good luck to you if you're betting all of them but the last five are those weird optional claiming races that seem to be almost impossible to handicap. Also, it's a sloppy track and their are a ton of scratches in some. I'll bet my 7 above and enjoy the last part of the card while grilling tonight in advance of the Vegas Golden Knights game.

    Good luck!
     
  16. Wanker751

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    Decent promo on my wagering account. Looks like I will be making some win bets.

    Any ideas if there is an angle to a promo like this? Like betting chalk? Or maybe a lot of second or third choices?[​IMG]
     
  17. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio Anonymous Husband
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    They advertise this quite a bit on TVG. (Of course, I live in Texas so I an't take advantage of it).

    I would think that's a good idea for chalk betting, at the very least you get your money back if they finish 2nd or 3rd. But I think I might also use it to dabble with longshot runners who have a history of hitting the board, if not actually winning.
     
  18. Wanker751

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    Race two. Off turf

    I put a $5 win bet on number 8 so innocent.

    There is an even money horse but she never raced on dirt.

    #8 was 20 to 1 ML, now 7 to 1. Won last race on dirt and has a 3rd over a wet dirt track. Also figures to be on the lead in this race without much speed to press her.
     
  19. Wanker751

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    Yeah I went with that angle in the 1st race. A longer shot that has hit the board every race this year but 1.
     
  20. Wanker751

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    Shows you what I know.

    Did not hit the board
     
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