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average swings at a blackchip per hand games?

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Byron, May 3, 2021.

  1. Byron

    Byron Silver

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    Hi
    Looking for advice/experience/stories regarding types of bankroll swings you guys see with playing $100 per hand BJ. I play so many varying bets, but often between 50-1000 max. I was thinking of going and playing 40000-5000$ though a couple times this week, but just flatting betting 100, what are the average hourly swings at baccarat or blackjack for this method?
    +/- 10-15 units average per hour? obv blackjack is more than baccarat with possible doulbes splits etc.
    please advise, also do you feel flat bet is a good method or just bet what you feel and go for recouping with big bets or pressing only if on a hot streak? I should add i often play alone and sometimes do prefer empty tables
    I usually bet all over the place, but several times now i lost alot doing that so quickly. I mean for me 5000 is a good bit to bring, but to lose in 3 hours felt really bad. With betting hundreds per hand it didnt take long, maybe 2 hours at tables total, 1 was at slots.. so Im thinking with 50 bets i could play all tonight and of course still good chance i could be up.
     
    #1 Byron, May 3, 2021
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
  2. Mnmurphy

    Mnmurphy Bronze

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    If you play 60 hands an hour you can expect to win about 29.75 of those on average, or a loss of about one half of one unit per hour (on average).

    The probability density function suggests about 86% of outcomes will be +\- 4 units in either direction. 95% would be within 8 units in either direction.


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  3. bayoubengal

    bayoubengal World's Worst VP Player
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    [​IMG]

    This chart will give you a rough idea. The term you’ll want to search for is “Risk of Ruin” and your terminating event will be time. A lot of the calcs I see online are trying to create a lifetime bankroll.

    So if you’re flat betting just add two zeros to these numbers for black chips. Bacc and BJ aren’t far off. So for 4 hours of play roughly 40 units would survive most of the time.

    Also check this out.

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/risk-of-ruin/



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    #3 bayoubengal, May 4, 2021
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  4. Mr2BOBCATS

    Mr2BOBCATS Platinum

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    Where's the version of this chart for @BeeeJay ?
     
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  5. bayoubengal

    bayoubengal World's Worst VP Player
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    How many Red Lobster hostess are involved?


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  6. Ace Rothstein

    Ace Rothstein Silver

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    What is this running schtick about a Red Lobster hostess on here?
     
  7. Tesla

    Tesla Doubling 11 vs. 6

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    Black-chip BJ player here. Other posters have given good information already, so my take will be more based on experience. Think of your experiences playing low stakes ($5 a hand) and multiply them through by 20. At $5/hand, a typical buy in is $100 and it's fairly easy to win or lose $100. At $100/hand you buy in for $2k and can easily win or lose $2k. So yes, a 20-unit swing in an hour is pretty normal and the chart above backs up my (and maybe your?) experience.

    Unless you are counting cards there is no betting system that is "better" than any other to reduce the house edge. Flat betting will reduce your fluctuations somewhat but where's the fun in that? :) However, you can reduce the house edge in other ways. If you are playing $100/hand you should shop around within the casino for the best possible BJ rules (e.g. 3:2 payout on BJ, dealer stands on soft 17, double deck game instead of a 6-deck shoe), and have your basic strategy down cold. Getting your play rated means some comps back from the casino which is effectively a partial rebate on your losses.

    Playing heads up/empty table means more decisions (hands) per hour, so that will increase your fluctuations. Busy, slower tables might get you more playing time for your money.

    Quick edit after I hit "Post Reply" - if you do vary your bets, you can estimate a weighted average to figure out what your flat-bet equivalent is. For example, if you are betting $100 most of the time but press your bets up to $400 during a hot streak, that's the same as flat betting something like $140-$150 per hand.

    Good luck!
     
    #7 Tesla, May 4, 2021
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  8. bayoubengal

    bayoubengal World's Worst VP Player
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    And if time on table is something you’re trying to maximize look for hand shuffle games or even pitch games. I’ve played the double deck pitch game at Main Street and that was SLOW!! The casino probably adjusts ratings accordingly but it was nice to have a leisurely pace while having a drink or 3.


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  9. Byron

    Byron Silver

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    Thank you so much I’m gonna try tonight the first time in at least 1 in 10 times just going flat tonight
     
  10. Mnmurphy

    Mnmurphy Bronze

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    In the spirit of reducing variance, another way to do so is to split your base unit over more hands. If your base unit is $100, play 2 hands of $50 instead (table rules permitting). Or even better, 3 hands of $33 or $50 (assuming you move your base unit to $150).


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