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Cosmo's Theoretical Loss Percentages for Slot and VP / Keno Play

Discussion in 'Identity - Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas' started by YOleven, May 18, 2019.

  1. YOleven

    YOleven Silver

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    I'm sure this has been discussed elsewhere in existing threads, but for the sake of creating a topic-specific thread that might stick out in a search (and, of course, my own curiosity), could someone summarize the percentages / amounts that Cosmo generally considers for theoretical loss? I'm guessing that the theo for slot play might be somewhere around 10%, however I recall reading that VP play may depend on the paytables and EV of the specific game being played. For example, I could see that the theo for full pay 9/6 JoB might be at or less than 1%, while short pay DDB might be more around 4% or 5%. I'm not sure how detailed Cosmo gets into rating specific VP play based on paytables, but perhaps it's something along those lines.

    From a rating perspective, would $6,000 coin-in on a short pay VP machine (with roughly a 5% theo) be equivalent to $3,000 coin-in on a slot machine (with roughly a 10% theo)? Both would generate a theoretical loss of around $300, but I'm curious if, with all else equal, slot play is generally more likely to generate comp offers.

    Also, if Cosmo does calculate different theo based on the specific paytables being played, how do they typically rate video keno, or at what theo percentage? If I'm playing on a bartop for a few hours, half the time playing VP and the other half playing keno, will my play be rated at two different theo percentages?

    While I've been pretty consistent with my level of play at Cosmo during each trip over the last couple of years and my comp offers have fortunately been very consistent as well, 'm not intending on messing with a "winning system" and will continue spreading my play roughly equally between slot and VP play. Nonetheless, out of curiosity I'd like to analyze my play from past and upcoming trips from a theo perspective, so any information would be appreciated. Thanks!
     
  2. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Cosmo offers are generally based on theo. So afaik, $1000 theo on slots or $1000 theo on keno/VP should get the same marketing offer.

    Cosmo tracks theo of different games exactly. So if you're playing 9/5 dollar DDB (2.13% theo) on a bartop and decide to switch to a dollar keno game with say 7% theo, Cosmo's system immediately knows this and gives you the correct theo for every round of whatever game you play.
     
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  3. Cosmo_Slot_Vice_President

    Cosmo_Slot_Vice_President Cosmopolitan VP
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    This is accurate.

    -KS
     
  4. YOleven

    YOleven Silver

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    Thanks for the confirmation, Kevin. While I knew that the theo percentage for VP would certainly be less than slots, I wasn't aware that VP theo was calculated on such a granular level, based on the EV of the specific game / paytable being played.

    Also, I'm not a big video keno player, but as with VP, it's possible to determine the EV of a video keno game based on the specific game being played, its paytable, and the number of spots being played on a card. That said, are the theo values of different keno games also calculated exactly, or is all video keno bundled into a generic theo value?

    Finally, is 10% a relatively accurate, all-purpose theo for penny slots?

    P.S. - On a side note, in case Kevin is still following this thread, have you heard of any recent issues with Identity members accessing their accounts online? I, for example, have been unable to access my "Recent Activity" online for at least the last couple of weeks. Hopefully things will be up and running again by the time I'm in town...looking forward to a 7 night visit in a couple of weeks!
     
  5. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Yes keno theo will be calculated exactly via the paytable just like VP.

    10% is a nice ball park estimate for slots. But if you are playing purely penny video slots, it might be closer to 12% theo. Strip slot returns for penny slots often float between 12-13% theo.
     
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  6. cryptopiggie

    cryptopiggie Silver

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    I am at 15 pct loss
     
  7. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    But you're moving in the right direction at least? I thought you were worse before last trip...
     
  8. cryptopiggie

    cryptopiggie Silver

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    So so. I just love cosmo
     
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  9. Chuck

    Chuck Platinum
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    Yeah there's just no way to know, except at Venetian/Palazzo.

    I use 10% for ballpark, expecting it to be close for the mix of denoms I play. Pennies I'D expect to be AT LEAST 12%

    I played a Double Diamond machine at V/P and measured and it was set at 12.5% for both $1 and $5 denoms. A penny Simpsons machine was 14.5%. The 12.5% shocked me, the 14.5% didn't.
     
  10. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Chairman
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    That 12.5% is really awful.
     
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  11. Chuck

    Chuck Platinum
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    I couldn't help but think there's a possibility that in some cases they give you points as if the machine was set to X% but it really is set more favorably. 12.5% on a $5 denom 3-reel is so out of line, it's almost not believable.
     
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  12. Big Slotter/kdk

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    that is low, even on the low side for a quarter game, let alone dollars or $5. I'm just curious, how did you figure that out? I don't play at V/P so don't know their system but I read in one of the threads they will give you your slot theo, did you just play that only and see what they said?
     
  13. JeJas

    JeJas Gold
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    Many casinos are moving into the new generation of tracking systems, similar to Cosmo has been doing.
     
  14. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Point earning rate at V/P is directly tied to theo (so is Boyd Gaming for video poker), so you just have to watch how many points you earn on the machine and do a conversion.
     
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  15. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Yeah more and more casinos are moving to the Aristocrat Oasis system that can track everything precisely.
     
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  16. Chuck

    Chuck Platinum
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    What Tring said. If you're at the lowest tier, you get 10 points per $1 of theo. The earning rate is different at higher tiers.

    But all you have to do is:
    • Stick your card in, see how many points you have
    • Do $100 coin in
    • Take your card out and put it back in again to see your new point balance.
    • Divide the number of points you earned by 10 (or however many you earn per $1 of theo at your tier level)

    So in my case, I did $100 coin in and got 125 points. Which translates to $12.50 in theo or a 12.5% hold.
     
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