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Do you believe Casinos can "flip the switch"?

Discussion in 'Other Gambling Destinations' started by MoneyMike, Jun 13, 2017.

  1. Chuck

    Chuck Platinum
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    It's definitely true the vast majority of people don't care and wouldn't bother looking for the info even if it was available.
     
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  2. Funkhouser

    Funkhouser Regional Gambling Specialist
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    I don't think you can compare VP vs Slots to determine what the average gambler behavior will be. Slots require no skill to play or knowledge, you push the button and maybe pick some random symbols in a bonus round. More people will play slots vs VP. VP requires some level of poker rules. Example my wife who is a very casual gambler, was afraid to play VP, even teaching her some basic skills, she feels like it's too difficult and not 'fun' like the video slots.

    I am an educated VP player, but I always found a problem with theoretical payback on VP vs Slots. I still believe that in the short term pay tables on VP mean very little in regards to odds of getting a Royal. You have to be a long term player to feel the effect. How many hands at VP represent long term theoretical?

    VP also has different rules, there are a fixed number of cards per deck, a shuffle, and a fixed number of cards you can get based on the discard.
    So in theoretical hold, better pay tables only enable me to play more hands, since it is assumed that the return monies on a won wager would result in more hands played toward a RF cycle.


    Contrast that to Slots which payback percentage is based on number of virtual reel stops. Non winning reel stops increase with higher hold rates. So my odds drastically decrease of top prize based on reel stops. In VP my odds of a drawing Royal never change based purely on pay tables.
     
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  3. 44inarow

    44inarow Cool Story Bro
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    I agree that the pay tables mean nothing in regards to pulling a royal, but I feel like that's why the paytables are even more important in the short term. Given that the odds of getting a royal are roughly 1/40,000, it's statistically unlikely that you're going to get one in any given session (not to mention, putting progressives aside, royals generally pay out the exact same amount regardless of the rest of the paytable). But you're going to get a lot of straights, flushes, and full houses, and whether you're getting 9 credits for a full house versus 6 credits will definitely make an impact on your short-term returns.

    I think the bigger issue with VP is that many people are highly uneducated about it. I would be willing to bet that there are many people playing bartops who not only don't know that there are often better machines elsewhere in the casino, but the simple act of switching from $0.25 to $1 can dramatically change their payback percentage. The paytable gives a ton of information, but only if you know how to read those numbers.
     
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  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Yeah, paytable differences in flushes/full houses affect Royal odds very little. It mainly makes it a better game because you get more money to play longer with every full house/flush. It does add up.

    What is long term? Meh, depends on the game and how "close" you want to get to "expectation". A few years back, a poster on videopoker.com was questioning the fairness of the game he played because he only got 95% return on a 9/6 DDB game, which should return 98.98% over 125,000 hands. Well, I ran a simulation. He should return 95% or worse about 1% of the time in a "fair" game.
     
  5. WickedWins

    WickedWins Silver
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    I thought of this topic recently at my local . Was playing a slot when the adjacent machine screen went blank .. It said "reconfiguring".. Then back to normal. Nobody was playing it.. This happened at 4:20pm. Coincidentally, my luck ran out the rest of the day. It just supports my idea that machines are much tighter in the evening vs daytime.
     
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  6. Funkhouser

    Funkhouser Regional Gambling Specialist
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    When server based gaming first came out, the fear was the casinos would move to a demand based odds model where they would change the odds when the casino was busy and lower them during slow times, or vice versa. This never materialized because the gaming regulations never changed, so they still had the headache of compliance if they wanted to do that. So changing the odds in most gaming jurisdictions is very unlikely, the game math is too solid and the casino is going to make their money in the long run.

    The player is just subject to normal variation sometimes in their favor and sometimes those horrible losing streaks. They are just part of the normal swing of things.
     
  7. ted_nancy

    ted_nancy Platinum
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    I have a reasonably flexible schedule and am enough of a degenerate to go to a casino midday on a Tuesday... I would love it if casinos bumped the odds during off hours and reduced them on nights and weekends.
     
  8. Goldenknight

    Goldenknight Platinum

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    I lose plenty during the day at the casino lol

    No way there's a difference
     
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  9. momnkid

    momnkid Platinum
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    Nah, it was just taking an MJ smoke break. The clue was 4:20. HAHAHAHAHA

    Jim never understands why I might like a game but only play a certain machine if there is a row of them. He doesn't know that sometimes I will "distance lurk" and if I have seen a machine giving better play than the others consistently, I will wait and only try that particular one. Yes, there is no guarantee that it will cooperate but usually they do and I look like I just have the "lucky touch".
     
  10. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Honestly if I was trying to tweak paybacks during days of the week, I would be more likely to tighten games up earlier in the day during the week. Those customers are more likely to be a "sure thing", imo.
     
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  11. WickedWins

    WickedWins Silver
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    I don't know about that. Why piss off the regulars/locals/degens who have a choice in where they go? No need to loosen up slots at night when it's always busy.
     
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  12. ted_nancy

    ted_nancy Platinum
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    Yeah, loosen the hold and jack up the volatility during the day because you have all the time in the world to grind down the local degens who show up midday every week. Tighten the hold and tamp down the volatility nights and weekends to avoid getting hit and run by the tourists.
     
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  13. mikey7777

    mikey7777 Bronze

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    The strip has tightened all of the machines 24/7/365, look at the revenue. Please keep in mind they want people to hit jackpots when it is crowded, IMO the only time they could change the percentages would be in the morning when they take out the money, even that would be hard to do! I think it is possible but unlikely in Nevada.
     
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  14. Funkhouser

    Funkhouser Regional Gambling Specialist
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    There has been a gradual increase on slot hold, just because more penny slots are taking up casino floor space. Lower denomination slots typically have lower payback percentages. Statistically speaking there really has only been a small increase on slot hold on strip. Adjust the math for penny slot machine increase on the floor, your looking at .0018% change. Looking at averages including penny slot number growth, its roughly 1.4%.

    You can read all the exciting figures at: https://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_slot_hold.pdf
     
    #74 Funkhouser, Sep 14, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
  15. Grid!

    Grid! Silver

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    I'm a little surprised to see this one get a bump. Didn't we put this myth to bed?

    It is called gambler fallacy. The casino does not flip a switch and set machines from pay to steal.

    Being grounded in reality, and understanding how casinos and slots work. What some are suggesting is just a logistical nightmare. Yes, some casinos do have server based slots. Maybe not the entire casino, but some. Gaming regulations require you to change the statistics on the machine after a change. The machine has to be idle, and a screen stating a change is being made must be shown. They cannot change anything while you are playing it. How many people can say they saw an actual server based hold taking place, I'd venture to say no casino has actually done so. At least not wide spread. Maybe a title or two to promote more play. I'll get to that later.

    And that is just for the machines that ARE server based. Casinos with many older titles need to fill out all the paperwork to the regulatory agencies in regards to a payback change. If you are going to change the holds in a casino you'd need all slots to switch to high holds right?

    They would physically have to clear each and every slot machine. Pull and replace the chip (E-Prom) with the new RNG loaded on it (if they can even find a new chip for some older games) clear the hoppers of any cash/TITOs, report those over to the cage with each switch out. THEN you have to give the machine a new ID number, since a new chip is now a new game regardless if the title stays the same. AND THEN do everything I just typed out in reverse to put the machines back to the way they were once the higher hold or return days are over with.

    You are talking maybe an hour of work per machine. People you are paying in all those departments to do work to rake in a few extra points on the averages. They would need an army of people to do this. And they would need an empty casino to do it in.

    Has this ever happened? Has a casino ever systematically changed their holds for a busy weekend, promo, drawing or any other such peak time? No. Machines are leased or purchased with a selected (or suggested) RNG already loaded. Say 10% hold. If the machine is not getting the type of play it should, it might be relocated or even reconfigured (by using the above) in order to entice action. If none of that works, the machine is off the floor since it is not earning its keep. But that is done by machine, and certainly not by the entire casino floor at once.

    You might have very well seen signs on a slot that say "The progressive on this machine will be moved on/by a certain date". That is the casino giving warning that a machine is being pulled, and the progressive (by law) is being moved to another machine. In rare instances the progressive money is given away via a drawing.

    Anything that you heard from a guy that heard from a guys cousin that has insider info is wrong. Anything you experienced in this regard is purely anecdotal. If word got out that a casino was doing anything like this, jacking up the holds on their machines with a switch, how long would it take before that casino was empty? And if word got out that certain days were "Handpay bonus-a-rama" days, how long before the casino went bankrupt? And in either instance the pure amount of reporting, switching, and working on each machine in order to pull it off would never offset the gains the casino hopes to see in order to do this.

    I have said it before, there is no Magic Switch!
     
  16. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio ¿Quién vigila a los vigilantes?
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    This issue will NEVER be put to bed. As much as we would all like it to be so.

    As long as people keep going to casinos and losing their money they will continue to look for a boogeyman who is "taking" it from them.

    And it's getting worse across all of society, not just in the gaming industry.

    That said, good post. I agree with everything you're writing, pertaining to casinos in regulated markets.
     
  17. Grid!

    Grid! Silver

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    There are a lot of Boogeymen out there that cause you to lose! It can never be as easy as the math being stacked against you right?

    I didn't wear my lucky hat, so I lost! I forgot to bang on the 3rd reel so I didn't get the jackpot! I didn't rub the screen hard enough the last time 2 of the 3 bonus symbols appeared, so I never got to play the bonus! I didn't win anything last time, the casino must have flipped the switch!

    To me, these are all one in the same :eek:
     
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  18. NickPappageorgio

    NickPappageorgio ¿Quién vigila a los vigilantes?
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    Hey, hey, hey.....lay off lucky hat now.

    Seriously though, me and Mrs. P have a LOT of gambling "traditions" that we swear by. I have the lucky hat, we watch movies heading to Vegas, have to see the Bellagio Fountains before we leave, do a "last spin" on a large format dollar machine.

    Most of these are just harmless fun and are things we like to do together.

    When we have losing trips we joke that "we've pissed off the gambling gods" but we really know that it's just variance and the baked-in house edge. In fact, MOST gambling trips are losers. The few where you actually do win are outliers.

    We GET that intellectually, but the other just makes it fun.

    And isn't that why we all go to Vegas in the first place? Because it's fun?

    I know that's the way it is for me, even if I don't believe the superstitious crap that we do and laugh about.
     
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  19. fraygul

    fraygul Bingo Nerd

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    Next you're going to try to tell me that my husband isn't a cooler!
     
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  20. bayoubengal

    bayoubengal World's Worst VP Player
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    The switch for the slots is located next to the switch that activates the magnets in the roulette wheel and on the bubble craps machine.
     
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