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Do you believe Casinos can "flip the switch"?

Discussion in 'Other Gambling Destinations' started by MoneyMike, Jun 13, 2017.

  1. Chuck

    Chuck Platinum
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    It's definitely true the vast majority of people don't care and wouldn't bother looking for the info even if it was available.
     
    QueenRain likes this.
  2. Funkhouser

    Funkhouser Regional Gambling Specialist
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    I don't think you can compare VP vs Slots to determine what the average gambler behavior will be. Slots require no skill to play or knowledge, you push the button and maybe pick some random symbols in a bonus round. More people will play slots vs VP. VP requires some level of poker rules. Example my wife who is a very casual gambler, was afraid to play VP, even teaching her some basic skills, she feels like it's too difficult and not 'fun' like the video slots.

    I am an educated VP player, but I always found a problem with theoretical payback on VP vs Slots. I still believe that in the short term pay tables on VP mean very little in regards to odds of getting a Royal. You have to be a long term player to feel the effect. How many hands at VP represent long term theoretical?

    VP also has different rules, there are a fixed number of cards per deck, a shuffle, and a fixed number of cards you can get based on the discard.
    So in theoretical hold, better pay tables only enable me to play more hands, since it is assumed that the return monies on a won wager would result in more hands played toward a RF cycle.


    Contrast that to Slots which payback percentage is based on number of virtual reel stops. Non winning reel stops increase with higher hold rates. So my odds drastically decrease of top prize based on reel stops. In VP my odds of a drawing Royal never change based purely on pay tables.
     
    NickPappageorgio likes this.
  3. 44inarow

    44inarow Cool Story Bro
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    I agree that the pay tables mean nothing in regards to pulling a royal, but I feel like that's why the paytables are even more important in the short term. Given that the odds of getting a royal are roughly 1/40,000, it's statistically unlikely that you're going to get one in any given session (not to mention, putting progressives aside, royals generally pay out the exact same amount regardless of the rest of the paytable). But you're going to get a lot of straights, flushes, and full houses, and whether you're getting 9 credits for a full house versus 6 credits will definitely make an impact on your short-term returns.

    I think the bigger issue with VP is that many people are highly uneducated about it. I would be willing to bet that there are many people playing bartops who not only don't know that there are often better machines elsewhere in the casino, but the simple act of switching from $0.25 to $1 can dramatically change their payback percentage. The paytable gives a ton of information, but only if you know how to read those numbers.
     
    NickPappageorgio and tringlomane like this.
  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Yeah, paytable differences in flushes/full houses affect Royal odds very little. It mainly makes it a better game because you get more money to play longer with every full house/flush. It does add up.

    What is long term? Meh, depends on the game and how "close" you want to get to "expectation". A few years back, a poster on videopoker.com was questioning the fairness of the game he played because he only got 95% return on a 9/6 DDB game, which should return 98.98% over 125,000 hands. Well, I ran a simulation. He should return 95% or worse about 1% of the time in a "fair" game.
     
  5. WickedWins

    WickedWins Bronze
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    I thought of this topic recently at my local . Was playing a slot when the adjacent machine screen went blank .. It said "reconfiguring".. Then back to normal. Nobody was playing it.. This happened at 4:20pm. Coincidentally, my luck ran out the rest of the day. It just supports my idea that machines are much tighter in the evening vs daytime.
     
    clarkgriswald likes this.
  6. Funkhouser

    Funkhouser Regional Gambling Specialist
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    When server based gaming first came out, the fear was the casinos would move to a demand based odds model where they would change the odds when the casino was busy and lower them during slow times, or vice versa. This never materialized because the gaming regulations never changed, so they still had the headache of compliance if they wanted to do that. So changing the odds in most gaming jurisdictions is very unlikely, the game math is too solid and the casino is going to make their money in the long run.

    The player is just subject to normal variation sometimes in their favor and sometimes those horrible losing streaks. They are just part of the normal swing of things.
     
  7. ted_nancy

    ted_nancy Platinum
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    I have a reasonably flexible schedule and am enough of a degenerate to go to a casino midday on a Tuesday... I would love it if casinos bumped the odds during off hours and reduced them on nights and weekends.
     
  8. Goldenknight

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    I lose plenty during the day at the casino lol

    No way there's a difference
     
    tringlomane likes this.
  9. momnkid

    momnkid Platinum
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    Nah, it was just taking an MJ smoke break. The clue was 4:20. HAHAHAHAHA

    Jim never understands why I might like a game but only play a certain machine if there is a row of them. He doesn't know that sometimes I will "distance lurk" and if I have seen a machine giving better play than the others consistently, I will wait and only try that particular one. Yes, there is no guarantee that it will cooperate but usually they do and I look like I just have the "lucky touch".
     
  10. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    Honestly if I was trying to tweak paybacks during days of the week, I would be more likely to tighten games up earlier in the day during the week. Those customers are more likely to be a "sure thing", imo.
     
  11. WickedWins

    WickedWins Bronze
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    I don't know about that. Why piss off the regulars/locals/degens who have a choice in where they go? No need to loosen up slots at night when it's always busy.
     
  12. ted_nancy

    ted_nancy Platinum
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    Yeah, loosen the hold and jack up the volatility during the day because you have all the time in the world to grind down the local degens who show up midday every week. Tighten the hold and tamp down the volatility nights and weekends to avoid getting hit and run by the tourists.
     
    NickPappageorgio likes this.
  13. mikey7777

    mikey7777 Bronze

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    The strip has tightened all of the machines 24/7/365, look at the revenue. Please keep in mind they want people to hit jackpots when it is crowded, IMO the only time they could change the percentages would be in the morning when they take out the money, even that would be hard to do! I think it is possible but unlikely in Nevada.
     
  14. Funkhouser

    Funkhouser Regional Gambling Specialist
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    There has been a gradual increase on slot hold, just because more penny slots are taking up casino floor space. Lower denomination slots typically have lower payback percentages. Statistically speaking there really has only been a small increase on slot hold on strip. Adjust the math for penny slot machine increase on the floor, your looking at .0018% change. Looking at averages including penny slot number growth, its roughly 1.4%.

    Yon can read all the exciting figures at: https://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_slot_hold.pdf
     
    WickedWins and Slotness like this.
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