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I Angered the Cosmo Offer Gods

Discussion in 'Identity - Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas' started by Grid!, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    theo / coin-in

    That should equal the average hold. If you played one machine the entire trip, it should be the hold on that particular machine.
     
  2. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Chairman
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    Lol yes I know...

    But add it the VP (Which I know the theo of) I need to take that out to find the slot hold I had...
     
  3. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    Ah. For some reason I missed that part.

    Still, as long as you were playing the same payable, it should be pretty straight-forward to extract the VP.
     
  4. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Chairman
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    Yes the VP would be easy.. Sadly my activity isn't showing up from my last trip..
     
  5. joshj

    joshj Silver

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    That's not quite accurate - it would be the hold for your spins on the machine. The only way if it was the actual hold of the machine would be if the machine paid you exactly what the payback percentage was on every single spin. $1 bet, 93 cents back. Rinse and repeat.

    The reality is short term variance could make that number higher or lower than the actual set payback/WATP on the machine. You'd need to put in millions of spins to approach the actual expected payback of a machine (and at 400-600 spins an hour, good luck with that). One good jackpot or routing will skew the numbers, and that's why some players trend higher than theo and some lower, and why some casinos use theo as a calculation to begin with.
     
  6. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    I don't get it. But maybe I'm missing something here.

    The theoretical loss should be the percentage you expect to lose according to the hold for the amount of coin-in. Coin-in represents total amount spent on the machine, regardless of money won. So, if you're playing $1 spins and you spin it 1k times, your coin in would be $1k.

    Therefore, the calculation should be: Coin-in * hold percentage = theoretical loss

    And, if that's actually the case, then: theoretical loss / coin-in = hold percentage

    But, as I said before, I could be missing something as I don't really play slots too much and it's not my area expertise.
     
  7. joshj

    joshj Silver

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    No worries! I can try to help a bit. I didn't disagree with your formula - where things fall down is here:

    You can't calculate the hold on a machine based on one session or series of sessions because of the mathematical variance. On a particular session you could hit a handpay! You could hit basically nothing. The machine isn't set to pay an even amount, it's set to pay a certain percentage back over the long term, and that's that millions of spins I was talking about. So even if you played one machine and asked for the stats, that would only be helpful for determining what happened in your session.

    There's unfortunately no actual way to know the long-term hold of a machine without having access to the stats screen, which is generally not the case unless someone's working on a machine or something like that and you happen to catch a glimpse. So you can't do the calculation you've outlined in your post. You know ACTUAL win/loss which is your results, but your results can easily deviate from the programmed hold/payback. Hopefully that makes it clear.
     
    sparkydog likes this.
  8. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    But theoretical loss doesn't have anything to do with what actually happened on the machine. So big wins and losses are meaningless.

    Without theo, you would have to calculate it using the session info that you keep referring to. And, as you alluded to earlier, that would be extremely difficult to do.

    But all of that is moot.
     
    Wanker751 likes this.
  9. cryptopiggie

    cryptopiggie Silver

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    You could not calc theo loss.
     
  10. CherriesJubilee

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    There's really no such thing as a "long term hold"; the casino sets the payback of a machine from which the hold is derived. But it's neither a long term nor short term hold. It simply is the hold/house edge/etc. The machine's payback is set during the initial setup, and that's what it is until changed by the casino.

    Per wikipedia: "The theoretical loss is the amount of money a player is expected to lose based on the long run statistical advantage the casino has on the particular game being played."

    Theoretical loss algorithms differ somewhat among casinos, but in general, the logic behind the calculation is as follows:
    Theoretical Loss = (Casino Advantage) × (Total Wager)

    $100 THEO = 10% HOLD x $1000 COIN IN

    $100 THEO
    -------------------- = 10% HOLD
    $1000 COIN IN

    What undathesea said is correct, and I believe I mentioned the same in an earlier post. If you played 1 machine during your entire trip and got the theo, you could calculate the hold for that machine because you'd have 2 pieces of the formula. The reality is no one plays 1 machine their entire trip and multiple machines voids the calculation.
     
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  11. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Chairman
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    Only place I know of where this is easy to do is Venetian cause slot hold is how points are awarded...

    But you could get a general idea of hold esp if you play similar demons
     
  12. cryptopiggie

    cryptopiggie Silver

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    You would need the casino to tell u
     
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  13. CherriesJubilee

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    That's interesting for sure. I didn't know that.

    I will say, IMO, casinos should be required by law to post the payback on every single slot machine just like food items have nutrition facts. Think of it like nutrition facts for your wallet. They probably make more money by hiding the numbers because publishing them would require casinos to compete against each other more.
     
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  14. joshj

    joshj Silver

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    You're correct - rereading the earlier posts I missed that theo was a stat that was provided. If you have that you can figure out a machine's expected payback. So apologies @undathesea for missing that and sending this on the wrong path.

    One question though: Isn't hold based on actuals? Theo is based on expectation. I realize at this point I'm nitpicking words but we've started to discuss the wording, so might as well tidy it up. So for your formula:

    $100 THEO
    -------------------- = 10% CASINO ADVANTAGE/90% EXPECTED PAYBACK
    $1000 COIN IN

    And as far as your session goes:

    $800 COIN OUT (example)
    -------------------------------------- = 20% HOLD PERCENTAGE/$200 HOLD/80% PAYBACK
    $1000 COIN IN

    If I've got this wrong, please let me know... I see the words used in various ways (and I'm sure some of them are wrong lol). And to clarify, I used "long term hold" not as a definable term, but just the point that as a machine is in play longer and longer, it's more likely to converge on what the machine is expected to keep, and the player expected to be paid.
     
    #254 joshj, Sep 10, 2019 at 7:41 AM
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019 at 7:51 AM
  15. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Chairman
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    Yes I said this before... It's like going into a store and buying something without knowing the price until after you bought it.
     
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  16. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    I think you can state that... but as you said before, it's somewhat meaningless to calculate actuals on a per session basis because of variance.

    If they intend for the hold to be 15% on pennies, they set the machine up like that and then look at the actuals on a quarterly basis to see if they're hitting their number.
     
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  17. joshj

    joshj Silver

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    Yup - we're on the same page. Some players like to figure out if they're doing better or worse than the overall expectation. In Vegas you can't know at a machine level, but you can know by denomination in a zone, so if you're at 80% and pennies are at say, 85%, you know you're not up to the expected average.
     
  18. Wanker751

    Wanker751 Chairman
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    Yeah I want to say it was Chuck who clocked a double diamond $5 slot there and it was setg at something like 88%
     
  19. undathesea

    undathesea Silver

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    $5 slot at 88%?! That's crazy talk.
     
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  20. tringlomane

    tringlomane Theoretical Video Poker Addict
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    I guess we'll let you join...
    In casino revenue reports, they report actual "hold", "win percentage", or "return percentage" depending on the state's report formatting. But for comp calculations, "theo" is always the "theoretical hold", which is always based on the math model of the game and nothing else. 9/6 Jacks or Better will always have a "theoretical hold" of 0.46%. 7/5 DDB is always 4.29%. "Theo" cares not if a person wins or loses. For example, if a slot is set to hold 12% over an infinite number of spins and your coin-in is $10,000, then your theo is $1200 even if you would win a $30,000 jackpot on the machine.
    87.5% return iirc, @Chuck?
     
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